Simulated difference in annual and seasonal mean temperature

Simulated difference in mean annual and seasonal temperature (F) for the Midwest region, for 2041-2070 with respect to the reference period of 1971-2000. These are multi-model means from 11 NARCCAP regional climate simulations for the high (A2) emissions scenario. Color with hatching (category 3) indicates that more than 50% of the models show a statistically significant change in temperature, and more than 67% agree on the sign of the change (see text). Note that the color scale is different from that of Fig. 29. Grid boxes whose centers are over the Great Lakes or outside the 8-state region are masked out. Temperature changes for the NARCCAP simulations are similar to those for the CMIP3 global models (Fig. 29, middle left panel). Seasonal changes are similar to the annual changes, except slightly smaller in spring, and are in Category 3 (statistically significant for most models) throughout the region.