Scenarios
On these pages you will find information about and have access to a suite of scenarios produced as input to the U.S. National Climate Assessment. There are documents, graphics, references to data sets, and other resources that have been prepared to depict a range of plausible future conditions against which risks, vulnerability, and opportunities can be assessed at regional and national scale. In addition to providing input to the National Climate Assessment, these scenarios are designed to be useful to a variety of other users including researchers, technical report teams, and decision makers.
Most of the information herein will serve as input to the Fourth National Climate Assessment scheduled for release in 2018. Scenarios products are included for climate, sea level rise, and population and land use and can be accessed below. Information used in the production of the Third National Climate Assessment can be found here.
General information on the framework used in the production of these scenarios is described in this Scenarios Table.
Designated Scenarios for the Fourth National Climate Assessment
Climate
Click here to view introduction.
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LOCA
The Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA) data set (http://loca.ucsd.edu/) uses statistical techniques to correct global climate model data for biases and downscale those data to a 1/16th degree spatial resolution.
View Graphics for LOCA-Derived Variables. -
CSSR Climate Products
View CSSR Products -
State Climate Summaries
View State Climate Summaries
Sea Level Rise
Click here to view introduction.
Population and Land Use
Click here to view introduction.