Simulated decadal mean change in annual temperature
Simulated decadal mean change in annual temperature (°F) for the Midwest U.S. for each future decadal time period (represented by their approximate midpoints, e.g., 2015 = 2011-2020), with respect to the reference period of 2001-2010. Values are given for the high (A2, top) and low (B1, bottom) emissions scenarios for the 14 (B1) or 15 (A2) CMIP3 models. Large circles depict the multi-model means. Each individual model is represented by a black plus sign (+), or a red x if the value is statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Blue lines indicate the 10th and 90th percentiles of 30 annual anomaly values from 1981-2010. The model simulated warming by 2015 is not statistically significant but by mid-21st century, all models simulate statistically significant warming.
Mean annual temperature difference (deg F / decade)
Midwest, Simulated, CMIP3, Temperature
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3
The Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI)
All grids; 1971 - 1999 for 20th Century runs; 2021 - 2050, 2041 - 2070, and 2070 - 2099 for 21st Century runs