Observed decadal mean annual temperature change

Observed decadal mean annual temperature change (deviations from the 1901-1960 average, F) for the U.S. Great Plains (black line). Based on a new gridded version of COOP data from the National Climatic Data Center, the CDDv2 data set (R. Vose, personal communication, July 27, 2012). Gray lines indicate the 20th and 21st century simulations from 15 CMIP3 models, for the high (A2) scenario. The early 20th century rate of warming is not simulated by the models, but the late-century rate of warming is similar to the rate of warming in the models.