Simulated difference in mean annual temperature

Simulated difference in annual mean temperature (F) for Hawaii, for each future time period (2021-2050, 2041-2070, and 2070-2099) with respect to the reference period of 1971-1999. These are multi-model means for the high (A2) and low (B1) emissions scenarios from the 14 (B1) or 15 (A2) CMIP3 global climate simulations. Color with hatching (category 3) indicates that more than 50% of the models show a statistically significant change in temperature, and more than 67% agree on the sign of the change (see text).