Date of the First Fall Freeze

LOCA simulations of the change in the annual first occurrence of a minimum temperature at or below 32°F in the fall (first-freeze-date). Grid points with more than 10 of the 30 years not experiencing a freeze are excluded from the analysis. Maps are presented for the “Historical Climate”, “Lower Emissions”, “Higher Emissions”, and “Upper Bound” for three future time periods, as described above. Units for “Historical Climate” maps are day of the year. Units for “Lower Emissions”, “Higher Emissions”, and “Upper Bound” maps are change in the day of the year.

Graphs are also presented depicting the multi-model mean and 5-95th percentile model distributions of “first-freeze-date” under both higher and lower emissions for two urban areas, as described above. Units for graphs are days after August 1st.