Simulated decadal mean change in annual temperature

Simulated decadal mean change in annual temperature (F) for the Southwest U.S. for each future decadal time period (represented by their approximate midpoints, e.g., 2015 = 2011-2020), with respect to the reference period of 2001-2010. Values are given for the high (A2, top) and low (B1, bottom) emissions scenarios for the 14 (B1) or 15 (A2) CMIP3 models. Large circles depict the multi-model means. Each individual model is represented by a black plus sign (+), or a red x if the value is statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Blue lines indicate the 10th and 90th percentiles of 30 annual anomaly values from 1981-2010. The model simulated warming by 2015 is not statistically significant for most models, but by mid-21st century, all models simulate statistically significant warming.