Simulated seasonal mean temperature change

Simulated annual mean temperature change (F) for Alaska, for each future time period (2021-2050, 2041-2070, and 2070-2099) with respect to the reference period of 1971-1999. Values are given for the high (A2) and low (B1) emissions scenarios for the 14 (B1) or 15 (A2) CMIP3 models. The small plus signs indicate each individual model and the circles depict the multi-model means. The range of model-simulated changes is large compared to the mean differences between A2 and B1 in the early and middle 21st century. By the end of the 21st century, the difference between A2 and B1 is comparable to the range of B1 simulations.