Simulated decadal mean change in annual temperature

Developed for the 2014 NCA. New reports and images will be added as they become available.

Wed, 01/09/2013 - 00:09 -- mbp

General Information

Simulated decadal mean change in annual temperature (F) for the Northwest U.S. for each future decadal time period (represented by their approximate midpoints, e.g., 2015 = 2011-2020), with respect to the reference period of 2001-2010. Values are given for the high (A2, top) and low (B1, bottom) emissions scenarios for the 14 (B1) or 15 (A2) CMIP3 models. Large circles depict the multi-model means. Each individual model is represented by a black plus sign (+), or a red x if the value is statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Blue lines indicate the 10th and 90th percentiles of 30 annual anomaly values from 1981-2010. The model simulated warming by 2015 is not statistically significant for many models but by mid-21st century, all models simulate statistically significant warming.
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Source Information

Image Source: 
Laura Stevens