Simulated annual mean temperature change (F) for the Southwest region, for each future time period (2021-2050, 2041-2070, and 2070-2099) with respect to the reference period of 1971-1999 for the CMIP3 models and 1971-2000 for the NARCCAP models. Values are given for the high (A2) and low (B1) emissions scenarios for the 14 (B1) or 15 (A2) CMIP3 models. Also shown for 2041-2070 (high emissions scenario only) are values for 9 NARCCAP models, as well as for the 4 GCMs used to drive the NARCCAP simulations. The small plus signs indicate each individual model and the circles depict the multi-model means. The range of model-simulated changes is large compared to the mean differences between A2 and B1 in the early and middle 21st century. By the end of the 21st century, the difference between A2 and B1 is comparable to the range of B1 simulations.